U.S. Military Mobility Goals at Guantanamo/Cuba Scenario for Bargaining with Washington to Suspend U

Hadi-Aalami-Fariman, an expert on Latin American issues, explaining the dimensions of the presence of the US nuclear submarine at Guantanamo Bay, told the ILNA reporter: "Recently, the Cuban diplomatic apparatus has reacted to the arrival of a US nuclear submarine at Guantanamo Bay, calling it a provocation and escalation." Some believe that if this is true, it should be interpreted in retaliation for recent U.S. reports about China's presence in Cuba and Beijing's establishment of a spy base in the country, but it is important to mention a very important point. The reality is that in the current U.S. administration, there is a complicated situation in the case of Cuba, so that a series of lobbyists opposed to the U.S. embargo have been able to approach U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and pressure him to ease or lift the sanctions imposed on Havana.

He continued: "In return, Cuban authorities are seeking to lift sanctions on their country by the United States. The Cuban government is experiencing poor economic conditions and social vulnerabilities, and I believe that Havana wants to turn China and Russia against the United States in Cuba in order to ultimately pressure Washington. Accordingly, it should be noted that the United States has direct access to Guantánamo and that this location cannot be definitively monitored. Accordingly, I believe that Cuba's action can be likened to a political bargaining to lead the situation in the desired direction. What needs to be noted is that the Cuban government is not in a position to unilaterally threaten the United States or even send an indirect threat signal to Washington.

The analyst said that the power of the Havana government is no longer the same in economic terms and does not even want to enter into tension with the United States. For this reason, Havana's goal is to adjust sanctions to open up the economic space. I also have to point out that basically the Biden administration has been dealing with Cuba more gently than the Trump administration, and in some ways we should consider it to be a follower of Barack Obama's administration, but all the components in Havana and Washington indicate that Cubans are seeking a compromise with the Biden administration. Accordingly, if the Cuban lobbyists in the United States agree with the US power structure, I don't think China and Russia will go to serious stone-throwing.

Finally, referring to US red lines in Cuba and Latin America, he noted that not only Cuba, but also Moscow and Beijing know very well that the United States does not tolerate any movement abroad near its traditional sphere of influence, and Washington is very sensitive to its red lines in this region. Cuba understands these issues very well, and I believe that it is trying to prevent China and Russia from moving too much on its soil so that it does not suddenly take reckless action against Washington's vital interests and ultimately reaps its own interests in relation to the United States.