The role of Brazil in BRICS according to the theory of mutual dependence

Aalami Fariman, hadi. graduated from University of Tehran

The role of Brazil in BRICS according to the theory of mutual dependence

Abstract

Brazil has had a longstanding desire to become a global power and gain a seat on the United Nations Security Council, Regardless of which government has been in power. This goal between the military, the academic elite and Brazilian politicians is one of the points of commonality and a source of national unity. Accordingly, and considering the extensive investment in the domestic and foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the issue of BRICS and the discussions of de-dollarization and multilateralism in the future, it is necessary to conduct comprehensive studies on the future of Brazil and BRICS in order to make positive and beneficial directions in political decision-making. Based on the aforementioned necessity, the main question is that based on the views presented, what is the role and capability of Brazil in the BRICS based on the theory of interdependence, or at what level and position is it. The available data on Brazil's economic and political status also suggests that, despite extensive government advertising, this country has a long way to go to become a global power, and its influence within BRICS is still in its early stages. Research findings also emphasize that Brazil can only become an effective player on the global and regional stage if it can design and implement stable and consistent policies within the country, without being hindered by left-wing or right-wing actions of governments. The research method is based on descriptive and analytical data from libraries to provide an explanatory perspective.

Key words: Brazil، BRICS، Lulada Silva، Mercosur, Interdependence theory.

Introduction
Brazil's political history since independence has witnessed a great effort and perseverance to find a global role in competition and rivalry with the United States. Brazil was the first major Third World country to knock on the door of the club of developed democracies and is a potential United States of the future. Its long-term future is bright and its great courage and bravery are one of the reasons for its leadership (Viarda and Klein, 2008: 326). One of Brazil's successes has been the achievement of political centralization along with a nascent pluralism that is now driving sustainable economic growth (Acemoglu and Robinson, 2015: 671).

One thing is clear: Brazil’s ambition to play an autonomous and expansive role in the world, to assume a prominent and deserved position in the international power structure, has fundamentally shaped its relations with the United States for more than a quarter of a century and now in the 21st century. This ambition remains a fundamental tenet of Brazilian foreign policy in the new milleium (Moniz Bandeira, 2006: 19).However, this hegemonic role of the Southern Hemisphere is widely contested.

Jane Daudelin writes: “In this game, Brazil is the main player, but not the regional leader. Its economic and political weight is an accepted fact, but its power and influence are actively and persistently denied by everyone. Brazil's leadership in the region is more a figment of the imagination of the guests at the Davos summit and heads of state from different continents. On paper, Brazil dominates the region more than the United States, but it caot convert this dominance into significant influence" (Daudelin2014: 233). It has also been cautiously stated: "After the end of the Cold War, the United States has attached less security importance to the Latin American region and is ready to accept or even encourage Brazil's presence as a regional power, because this country can shoulder part of the costs of maintaining the economic and political stability of the small continent" (Shrim, 2013: 328). There have been extensive academic and government debates on whether Brazil has the ability to become a global power. Fifteen years have passed since the publication of the book The World After America[1] and an Assessment of the Power of Brazil, Canada, China, and India (Zakaria, 2019), and the world has witnessed significant developments. For many years, Brazil has long had the desire to become a global power and have a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Regardless of which government has been in power and with what characteristics, this goal is one of the common points between the Brazilian military and politicians.

Accordingly, and given the extensive investment in the domestic and foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the BRICS issue and the discussions of de-dollarization and multilateralism in the future, it is necessary to conduct comprehensive studies on the future of Brazil and BRICS in order to make positive and beneficial directions in political decision-making. Ignoring the real capacity of countries and their capabilities and choosing the wrong paths will have long-term damage to the country's national interests. Based on the aforementioned necessity, the main question in this research article is: What is the role and capability of Brazil in BRICS based on the theory of interdependence, based on the proposed and different perspectives?

The available data on the state of Brazil's domestic economic and political power indicate that, regardless of the extensive propaganda of the Brazilian government, this country has a long way to go to become a global power, and its power and influence in BRICS are in the initial and embryonic stage, and Brazil will only be able to become an effective player in the global and regional arena if it can design and implement regular and stable policies within the country, to the extent that the turn to leftism or rightist does not neutralize the useful actions of governments. The research method is based on the description and analysis of library data.

Research Background
There is little research literature on the role and power of Brazil in the world and its position in BRICS in Persian. However, in the last few years, the subject of Brazil has attracted the attention of domestic researchers. Most of the books and articles published are in English; therefore, some of the most important works in Persian and modern English are mentioned below.

- Viarda (1999) in the chapter “Brazil: The Disorders of a Progressive Democracy” in the book Latin America, Politics, Government and Development has discussed in detail the history, background and political culture, influential groups, parties and organizations, government institutions and the role of this country in the international arena. He concluded that Brazil, considering international problems and domestic damage, will have the necessary capacity to achieve global power, but only the passage of time will determine this process (Viarda and Klein, 2008).

- Jamali and Zolfaghari (2015) in their article Political Economy of Development and Democracy in Brazil 1960-2011 considered the main idea of ​​their work to be that the process of economic growth and development in Brazil, without the improvement and relative progress of political development, has been extremely fragile, unstable and unbalanced. The article concludes that by establishing a relative developmental balance between the economic and political spheres, relatively stable and continuous growth and stability of both spheres occurred in Brazil (Jamali and Zolfaghari, 2015).

- Zibaei (2018) in his article “Foreign Policy: A Tool for Brazil’s Economic Progress” examined the position of Brazil’s foreign policy in paving the path of economic progress of this country in light of an analytical model derived from the foreign policy of development-oriented governments. He concludes that for Brazilian politicians, the concept of independence is focused on development and does not contradict active presence in the international environment and the use of the capacities of this environment to improve the internal situation and enhance the country’s external position (Zibaei, 2018).

- Roth (1401) in the book Brazil’s Prosperity describes how Brazil has been able to transform from a Portuguese colony in South America into a country that holds the pulse of its region’s economy. Although the country is still considered a developing country; it is a pioneer in this path and is now considered an important partner for Europe and the United States. In this book, Riordan Roth talks about the begiing of the construction of modern Brazil and the emergence of military rule in 1964. Joining the BRICS is also evaluated in the book (Roth, 1401).

- Mohseni and Mazinani (1400) in the article “A Review of Brazil’s Economic Development Policies 1960-2021” address the issue of growth, development and investment in Brazil with the aim of examining the process of economic development and its challenges (Mohseni and Mazinani, 1400).

- Krasilshchikov (2021) in his book Brazil - The Rise of the Middle Development Trap: A Case Study of the Middle Development Trap (Transitional Societies and Political Order) discusses the current social and economic problems of Brazil as one of the largest emerging countries. It examines the development prospects of Brazil from an interdisciplinary perspective and studies its social, economic and political variables. The book covers the great period of Brazilian development in the 1920s and the first half of the 21st century. Special attention is paid to the short-term period of prosperity under center-left governments as a continuation of the previous conservative modernization model, which led to increased dependence on China and premature industrialization of the economy. The book mentions the lack of strong social actors as a major problem in Brazil today (Krasilshchikov,2021).

- Chaffee (2022) in his book Development: Politics and Economics in Brazil systematically compares political and economic developments in Brazil since 1964, linking political interests to economic policy, and showing how short-term political needs prevail over long-term economic values ​​ (Chaffee, 2022).

- Burque (2024) in his book Brazil’s International Position and Its Recognition as an Emerging Power emphasizes the long-term ambitions of Brazil’s foreign policy elite. He recommends that international observers, in comparison with other countries, recognize Brazil as a great power and a state with increasing international credibility (Buarque, 2024).

A large number of essays and books have been published on BRICS, generally examining the role of Brazil alongside other countries. Three of the comparative works are as follows:

- A book edited by Zondi (2022) entitled The Political Economy of BRICS Cooperation has been published. In the book, the authors use the idea of ​​internal cohesion through intra-BRICS cooperation and argue that the next stage of BRICS evolution is to strengthen cooperation between BRICS countries in implementing decisions. There is a risk that what BRICS promises and what it represents to its friends and foes will not be realized in the absence of central institutions; therefore, this book calls for deepening intra-BRICS cooperation in all policy areas where there are currently commitments and can help to mitigate this risk (Zondi, 2022).

- Wuriee, in his book BRICS: The Future of World Economic Power in a Changing World Order (2023), notes that the dynamics of economic power in the world have changed significantly in the 21st century, moving away from Western dominance and towards a multipolar configuration. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have emerged as key players in this new economic order. These countries are characterized by large populations, vast territories, abundant natural resources and rapidly growing economies. Together they have become essential to the engine of the global economy, contributing significantly to global GDP, international trade and investment flows beyond the G7. The book aims to examine the evolving role of the BRICS in the global economy by exploring their individual and collective paths, potentials and challenges. The implications of their emergence for global economic governance and power dynamics are also examined (Wuriee, 2023).

- Kahn et al., in their book BRICS National Iovation Systems (2024), present the results of an extensive research program on aspects of national iovation systems in the five BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The book provides a comprehensive and comparative review of the challenges and opportunities facing these dynamic and emerging economies. In discussing the impact of iovation on economic, geopolitical, socio-cultural, institutional and technological systems, it presents the possibility of new development paradigms for equitable and sustainable growth. The original and detailed data, together with expert analyses on a wide range of issues, make the book a valuable resource for researchers in economics, development studies and political science (Kahn & others, 2024).

The current study is therefore iovative in that it attempts to study the functioning of a major and important actor from both a domestic and international perspective. Studies on the BRICS region are very limited in Iran compared to other countries and have not been addressed to the desired extent. Studies on the coection between the internal and external issues of each BRICS member are an inevitable necessity, given the Islamic Republic's membership in BRICS.

Theoretical Framework of the Research
In the case of Brazil, from a domestic perspective, regardless of the military's past role in authoritarianism and widespread repression, Brazil's political organization is now based on a very strong federalism, and its government model is also very similar to the political structure of the United States. The presence of very old parties with different tendencies and three branches of government, along with numerous laws, has created a kind of complex bureaucracy in the country. This bureaucracy within the three branches of government, despite having political differences and internal conflicts, shares an opinion on the issue of pursuing national interests. Based on the aforementioned consensus, it guides politicians in different governments towards the expansion of export orientation and international trade. In the author's opinion, governments have a direct link to Brazil's role in the global arena and its desire for global trade in order to solve various and numerous domestic problems and harms, from crime to poverty, drug trafficking, unemployment, and instability caused by policy changes. In order to solve various and numerous domestic problems and harms, from crime to poverty, drug trafficking, unemployment, and instability, Brazil's role in the global arena and its desire for global trade are also part of this program.

In other words, the domestic consensus is guiding Brazilian leaders towards becoming an active player in the global community by expanding exports and focusing on the economy, and by resolving domestic economic problems.

Therefore, in the BRICS arena, interdependence theory as an analytical concept in understanding the complex behavior of this country and other actors can probably provide a solution to the findings of this study. Interdependence is not the old notion that a state’s behavior is strongly influenced by or completely shaped by external forces, but rather, in a broader sense, it is the issue of relative gains or losses shared by the parties, distributional issues, and exclusive emphasis on gains or their division in international partnerships that go beyond the military-security sphere. If all or most partners desire stability in the status quo, maintaining the balance of power will be beneficial for all of them, and cooperation will entail a large net benefit. Although there is also asymmetry (Deutsch, Keohane, and Nye, 1997: 943-944). The theory of interdependence was developed after the disappointment with the neo-functionalist theory. Interdependence is to some extent a reaction to the objective realities on the scene of international relations. Of course, the liberal economic order transformed this theory. Analysts argue that free trade leads to the adoption of a cooperative and peaceful foreign policy between states in two ways. First, the economic order provides greater economic prosperity and well-being for the nation and the country and makes them peaceful. Second, the liberal economic order increases economic interdependence between countries, which itself requires a peaceful foreign policy. With this description, the strategic concept of interdependence enters the field of liberal political and economic relations. Interdependence caot be escaped in any way. Dependence has three important features: a. The creation of multiple chaels of communication between societies and states; b. The proliferation of issues that caot be placed in a specific framework; c. The emergence of conditions in which threats and resort to force among countries that are interdependent are no longer relevant (Dehghani Firouzabadi et al., 1402: 366-367). Of course, the conclusion of the debates on the issue of dependence is that the liberal order has failed due to increasing inequality, national vulnerability, or renewed state patronage. Perhaps the best definition of interdependence is that of Genet, who expressed it as follows: “The concept of economic transnationalism in which states are not the only actors and social welfare issues are at the center of the global agenda alongside security issues” (Mohammadnia and Seifi, 1401: 208). Genest focuses more on cooperation than conflict in his argument.

Brazil's Strengths and Weaknesses

Geopolitical Challenges

Brazil's geopolitics presents challenges to growth: it has vastly different terrain. It is made up of rugged terrain that requires significant investment to develop. Most of its major cities are located on small coastal plains that are not coected to each other or to their hinterland, which limits their ability to grow and invest in infrastructure. In landlocked areas, the government has to build roads that are very expensive. Transportation costs remain high. The lack of quality land, good infrastructure, capital, and a skilled workforce are weaknesses. The country's diverse rugged terrain has always made political unity difficult. Brazil may always be a middle-income country. Brazil's wealth is in its commodities, and competing with other countries will be very difficult, as costs are much higher than elsewhere and given the protectionism of industries, there is no hope of competition (Pueyo, 2023, p: 1-3).

Brazil's Military Dimensions

Brazil, with the most advanced domestic defense industries and military budget, is the largest military power in the region. The defense budget fell from 57% of the budget in 2010 to 45% in 2022. It also decreased to 44.4% in 2023. The 2023 defense budget was also aounced at $ 2.24 billion. Defense-industrial modernization is being carried out with the help of technology. Key defense programs are underway, focusing on air and naval capabilities, with the participation of French companies in some areas. The armed forces are among the most capable forces in the region, and the country is seeking to increase its surveillance capabilities in the Amazon region and coastal waters and is developing its defense industry. The total active military is 366,500 people (Wall, 2024, p: 416).

Brazil's Economic Dimensions

With a GDP of $ 2.17 trillion in 2022, Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America and accounts for almost 30% of the region's economic output. Brazil remains one of the most unequal countries in the world. More than 680,000 people in Brazil have died from COVID-19, one of the highest per capita death rates in the world (Roy, 2022, p: 1-3).

The country has embarked on a rapid economic development. The government launched the largest privatization program in its history in 2019, raising $77.2 billion through 168 divestments. The government has implemented many structural reforms and enacted new laws across all sectors of the economy. Today (2023), Brazil has the lowest unemployment rate at 8.3%. The time to start a business, according to the World Bank, has decreased from 120 days in the past decade to 1 day and 23 hours. Brazil is the fourth largest producer of cereals in the world, feeding 800 million people (Roy, 2022, p: 2). The government is committed to continuing social programs and flexibility in respecting current expenditure ceilings, strengthening the role of state-owned banks in supporting credit growth and abolishing price-fixing policies (Coelho, 2021). The government has also pledged to stop illegal activities in the Amazon rainforest (Delivorias, 2022).

In the economic sector, Brazil has been involved in at least 23 cases of systematic corruption of government officials from 1985 to 2021. The country has lessons to offer the world. Its failures and successes are a model for anti-corruption efforts elsewhere, especially in large and complex democracies that are rarely mentioned. Many may see these corruptions as a scandal of a system of government that acts against development, but the reality is that the system of separation of powers and the independence of the judiciary in pursuing corruption cases demonstrate one of the most transparent legal and executive systems (Da Ros & Taylor, 2022p:223-234).

Some analysts believe that Brazil can be a global leader in the ongoing fight against climate change that affects the entire planet. Brazil is aware that preserving the Amazon is vital not only for this country, but for the entire world (Arias, 2023, p:1).

Overall, foreign direct investment in 2022 more than doubled to $90.6 billion compared to 2021, the highest level in a decade. Of this amount, only $37 billion (or 40%) was related to the attraction of foreign direct investment, which was spent on oil and gas exploration, renewable energy, agribusiness, mining, technology, financial services, and trade (Prusa & others, 2023).

Some analysts have examined the nature of the development and the current situation in the Workers' Party left and attribute Lula's re-election to the reconstruction of the Workers' Party, which will lead to political development in the country (Sirohi & Bhupatiraju, 2021. p:140-145)

In the oil and energy sector, exploration will make the country a major player in oil and gas production. The state-owned oil company Petrobras is now the largest multinational company in terms of exports. According to the latest statistics (2023), Petrobras has 12 refineries, 1,852,000 barrels of crude oil per day, $8.8 billion in capital, 45,532 employees, 5,042 producing oil and gas wells, 9,878 billion barrels of proven reserves, 57 production platforms, a network of 123 ships, 7,719 kilometers of oil and 9,910 kilometers of gas pipelines (Petrobras, 2024). There are two important issues in Petrobras’ power: one is the increase in foreign investment along with the development of technology for exploration, which Petrobras now has almost both. One is the relationship between the State Investment Fund and oil revenues and the relationship between the government and these revenues (Louni, 2013: 566-568). The same temptation to increase political profits that leads to corrupt oil governments.

Debates about Brazil's power
Brazil has been studied by economic and academic analysts as an influential international power since the early 2000s. But there is no consensus on the influence, scope, and rank of this South American country. There is a consensus that Brazil does not have enough hard power capabilities to be a great power. Military power has been a key factor in assessing a country's power, as measured by the Brazilian military and defense budget, which ranks first in the region, but ranks among the weakest countries in the world compared to others.

On the issue of development, Brazil has succeeded and has been largely accepted by its neighbors - hardly by Argentina. The creation of the Union of South American Nations, supported and led by Brazil, although not yet decisive on a global scale, has shown that Brazil has the power to attract others, albeit with reservations. Brazil's tangible presence and participation in international affairs are also important.

Brazil has a certain ambivalence in its regional leadership role, on the one hand it bears high political and economic costs that are a direct challenge to the government and on the other hand it tends to make leadership moves that create opposition at home. An important and contradictory point is that Brazil is said to be a revisionist at the global level, while it seems that it is not a revisionist power, but rather aims to join the club of the powerful. It accepts the United Nations and the Security Council, provided that it has a veto vote and tries to act as a decisive regional actor and an influential global actor (Gardoni and Friedrich, 2016.pp:5-19),

The failure to negotiate with the United States to accept its power seems to have tilted the country towards China and Russia. Some researchers believe that the pervasive presence of the United States in the region and Argentina and Mexico as Brazil’s main competitors are among the main obstacles to this regional power. Argentina has a desire for development, so Brazil and Argentina can claim to be a regional power in the future. Many of the activities of the Brazilian governments, especially in the South-South issue, were at times considered part of the Venezuelan strategy in the Bolivarian plan, which was also a factor of divergence in the region, and this behavior is contrary to the emerging power. From this perspective, Brazil can be seen as a “major or medium” middle power (Esteves, Gabrielsen, & Benjamin, 2020, pp:223-225).

In the literature of the weakening of the hegemon and the post-American world, Brazil is rarely present or is in the shadow of China and may possibly influence the equations together with China, but alone is not able to emerge as a global power. Since its rise to development, Brazil has always been a workshop for radical development theories due to being under the shadow of the United States. This school of thought still considers it an importer of foreign technology and capital. The lack of a valuable convertible currency, the export of immigrants, the low level of educational and technical skills, poverty and inequality, different economic growth rates, weak macroeconomic management, the emergence of left and right governments opposing each other in the policies of governing the country, power projection and diplomacy beyond military power, jealousy of Argentina and the power of Mexico, anti-American orientation (among US supporters) and accusations of acting imperialistically in the region are among the major obstacles to the globalization of Brazilian power (D’Almeida, 2014: 244-247).

Therefore, it can probably be concluded that in the post-American world, Brazil is only one of the emerging powers in the multipolar world, which may be the first in the region in some indicators, but at the global level, alongside other powers, it is horizontally placed after China, India, the European Union or before some Southeast Asian countries, and it seems that most of the country’s power is spent on issues in the South American region itself, which has many challenges and is eroding its capacity. Because Brazil's track record has shown that it lacks speed and quick responses in global partnerships, and in crises, it acts more biased and politically, considering the characteristics of its established government.

Table of Brazil's Ambitious Position and Diplomatic Initiatives[2]

period

Search for a position

Key foreign policy initiatives

Global role

Collaborative role

Functional role

Regional

Global

Humanitarian / Security

Finance / Development

The 1990s

Regional power

Alignment with key international norms

--------------

--------------

2002-2008

A regional power with a global standing

UNASUR2007

Ibsa 2003

Group of 4 (Germany. Japan. Brazil. India) Initiative for UN Security Council Reform 2005

India, Brazil and South Africa take action to reduce poverty and hunger. IBSA Fund 2004

2008-2014

Global power

Celac 2010

Brics 2008-2009

---

Tehran Agreement 2010 / FAO Management 2011 / Establishment of New Development Bank 2014

2016-2018

Medium power

Exit from unasur

----

----

Founding Members of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank 2016

2018-2022

Medium power

Decline in regional power (Bolsonaro era) Period of stagnation or stagnation (in the words of researchers and the Workers' Party)

----

----

----

2023

The quest for world power (Lula era)

South-South cooperation/strengthening Mercosur

Strengthening BRICS / Mediating the Ukraine War / Expanding Relations with China and the Issue of DE dollarization / Strengthening Relations with Africa

------

Rousseff's presence as bank president in Shanghai and Lula's full support for her

2024

The role of mediating power/emphasis on creating a multipolar order in the international financial system at the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia in 2024

Southern cooperation/strengthening Mercosur/opposition to the sanctions on Venezuela/opposition to Venezuela's membership in BRICS at the October 2024 summit due to the lack of transparency in that country's elections.

Opposition to sanctions on Iran/opposition to Israel in war crimes against the people of Gaza at the 2024 BRICS Summit in Russia.

Opposition to escalating tensions in the Middle East/Support for the formation of a Palestinian state/

Support for the accession of 6 new countries to BRICS/Support for Colombia to join BRICS/Support for the New Development Bank and the use of the countries' domestic currencies at the Kazan Summit in Russia.

Source: Esteves, Gabrielsen & Benjamin, 2020.p:217

Brazil's Role in BRICS. Definition of BRICS
BRICS is a group of emerging powers consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Initially, the name of this group was BRIC; but after South Africa joined, it was renamed BRICS. The first BRICS summit was held in Yekaterinburg, Russia, in June 2009. BRICS began its activities from the begiing as a key element in creating a multipolar world and as a soft balancing force against the United States as a unilateral hegemon. The objectives of the initial summit were to emphasize the concepts of improving the economic situation and reforming the world financial system, emphasizing playing a central role in resolving international financial crises; cooperation beyond economic issues, greater support for a multipolar and democratic world order based on the rules of international law, equality, mutual respect, cooperation, coordinated action and collective decision-making by all governments (Seifi and Khorramshad, 2019: 39).

According to 2024 statistics, the BRICS group has 45% of the world's population, 36% of the global GDP, and $45 trillion in investable wealth. Some of the actions of the BRICS members can be evaluated in different dimensions: questioning the legitimacy of the US dollar in economic transactions and trying to introduce a new currency called Briscoe or globalizing the yuan by China; opposing the US's exclusive presidency of the World Bank; indirect confrontation between the US and Russia in Ukraine; China's opposition to the use of its territories during the US attack on Afghanistan; China and Russia's opposition to the establishment of US military bases in various areas around their territory; Russia's opposition to the establishment of the US missile defense shield in Turkey and Eastern Europe; opposition to the establishment of US military bases in member countries; diplomacy; trying to bring new members to the Security Council; trying to reform the International Monetary Fund for the benefit of developing countries; trying to strengthen the role of international organizations; firm determination to achieve balance; opposing US unilateral economic sanctions against other countries; Efforts to improve the level of cultural relations between member countries in return for promoting American culture, establishing the BRICS Film Academy, creating common foreign exchange reserves; creating a development bank, sharing knowledge, cooperating with researchers and students to obtain visas, building scientific capacity, allocating grants to carry out scientific and research projects between member countries, and providing political advice (Saifi and Khorramshad, 2019: 44-45).

In short, all the research literature of researchers and politicians about BRICS focuses on two theories:

a) Opponents of BRICS, who consider it still in its early stages, unable to unilaterally create a new fundamental order, and has used most of its power to implement the will of member countries within coalition frameworks and to gently reform international arrangements, and that it is in its embryonic stage (Turabi Fard, 2014: 6).

In addition, the de-dollarization of international trade is currently a myth and lie of Russia and China, and many countries prefer to trade in dollars, and the issue of de-dollarization has generated extensive debates among economists and politicians to prove or disprove the issue. On the basis that even if the BRICS countries de-dollarize, much of the world will still use the dollar and the global monetary order will become more multipolar than unipolar (Majedi, 1402). In addition, obstacles such as the unsuccessful implementation of measures related to the reforms of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have largely limited the BRICS in international affairs. The exclusion of the BRICS countries from trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Trans-Atlantic Partnership, which are dominated by developed economies represented by the United States, will have negative effects. (Xiujun, 2020.p:175) The competition barriers of the powerful G7 in supporting the current international financial order, which is supported by the United States and other members of the group, are meant. Certainly, the IMF and the World Bank will not support emerging institutions due to the influence of the G7 countries in these institutions.

b) Those who consider this group an important opportunity to change the world towards multipolarity and multilateralism and an opportunity for the development and emergence of new countries. Including the theory of Lula da Silva who said that we are seeking to create a new geopolitical order so that by increasing diversity in the United Nations, we can change global governance (God's grace, 1402).

The basic narrative that made the emergence of the BRICS concept possible is the irreversible transition from unipolarity to multipolarity. By 2030, China and India are projected to grow by 28% and account for 11% of global GDP, while the United States and Europe will slow to 18% and 12%, respectively. Economic multipolarization may take longer than expected. The “lost decade” in Brazil, the recession and war in Ukraine in Russia, and political uncertainty in southern Africa have limited these countries’ efforts. The fundamental question is whether US hegemony will eventually end. From the perspective of many scholars in the United States, the rise of the BRICS may be positive for the global order and could well contribute to democratization in global decision-making and a mix of emerging great powers. This parallel system, with its distinct set of rules and institutions, rejects the power of key principles of international liberalism, and in particular any notion of a global civil society or military intervention in states. The West thus loses its counterbalance, with emerging powers introducing different principles and creating an alternative against the US-led Bretton Woods institutions (Stuenkel, 2020.p:165).

As the Brazilian President made clear at the October 2024 BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, that the New Development Bank is the new international financial arrangement against Bretton Woods.

By expressing different views on the scope of cooperation, the BRICS have questioned the origin of the special powers rules of the foundations of the liberal order. BRICS members fundamentally disagree on the basic policies of the liberal consensus, which has resulted in a critical challenge to the liberal internationalist project in fundamental areas. Analysts have argued that the emerging powers may become an “irresponsible” stakeholder in the world. The BRICS views are more diverse. While the emerging powers agree on fundamental issues such as institutions, shared security, and a democratic international society, they believe that collective solutions and shared sovereignty and the rule of law are impossible within the existing liberal order. Today's order is imperfect and often undermined by the system's creators themselves (Stuenkel, 2020.p:166-167). Despite its many obstacles and various challenges, BRICS is reminiscent of the prediction of the German philosopher Oswald Spengler, who believed that since civilization had gone from East to West, it would return to the East again (Sanaei and Ebrahimabadi, 2023: 33).

Brazil and BRICS
Brazil, with its large geographical scale, rich resources, growing power, and desire for an ambitious position to exert significant international influence, including a demand for a seat on the Security Council, has long been limited and confined due to the lack of a suitable platform due to the lack of space given to the Americans, and is in a constant effort to increase its international profile (Kiani, 1402).

Brazil's economy ranks third compared to the BRICS member countries and is the only Latin American representative in BRICS. Brazil's major problem is the lack of a solid long-term structure for economic growth in trade relations with the BRICS countries, and it has always been a supplier. Cooperation with BRICS has helped Brazil gain greater international visibility. In trade matters, Brazil is both willing to develop relations with Western countries and is trying to strengthen its position as an emerging economy in regional leadership, and is also afraid of being marginalized in the arrangements of international mechanisms. BRICS cooperation is a multilateral arrangement that is fully in line with Brazil's interests and needs, and as a result, Brazil has a stable and supportive attitude towards BRICS. BRICS countries have differences in history, geography, civilization, culture and religion, political systems, and economic and legal models (Mancuso & Bussani, 2022.pp:405). Even members have different thinking in the economic field, so that there is a certain competition between some BRICS countries along with differences and gaps in development plans (South Africa in BRICS, 2024); Therefore, in summary, Brazil's role in various aspects of its presence in BRICS can be examined as follows:

In building a foreign trade area

BRICS countries view the development of foreign trade as an important tool for increasing their economic power, and the five countries have successively developed their foreign trade area strategies. Brazil has mainly considered different aspects in its foreign trade development strategy. Brazil believes in bilateral and regional trade agreements, using regional integration as a tool to increase its power and position in the multilateral trading system as a strong facilitator in the structure of the foreign trade area. Using the structure of Mercosur or the Southern Common Market as a bargaining tool to conduct regional integration negotiations with the outside world is very strategic. Brazil hopes to expand trade between Mercosur, the Andean Group and the Auto Trade Security Agreement with Argentina and Mexico using the leverage of its representation in BRICS, Brazil uses the Southern Common Market as an important lever and pursues a policy of integrating the various and intercoected elements of its trade network with all countries and trade unions (Xiujun, 2020.p:150).

On the subject of international cooperation

Brazil has had a history of diplomatic relations with Africa for several decades. The country now plays a leading role in receiving and donating international aid to that continent and is a partner in the development cooperation policy framework with the African continent. In many cases, no commercial benefits are sought from this cooperation’s and the services are free, which has in some cases caused tension and conflict within Brazilian governments. (Yijia & de Oliveira, 2020.p:107)

In relations with Africa

Brazil's relations with Africa have gained importance since 2003 under the Lula da Silva administration, which made South-South relations one of its priorities. Brazil also has relations with the Portuguese-speaking countries of Angola, Mozambique and Guinea-Bissau. Trade relations between Brazil and Africa can be divided into three categories: different periods between 1997 and 2022, which saw a period of stability, with Brazilian exports of around $2 billion per year. The second period, from 2003 to 2011, saw a sharp increase in exports. The third period, from 2012 to 2017, saw a sharp decline in trade. Investment by African companies in Brazil is very low. In the case of Africa, China is the most powerful country in the relationship. China's economic and political power has created asymmetries and balances to create positive competition. For example, in the case of exports from Africa, Brazil tends to receive goods in dynamic and diversified sectors, while African exports are concentrated in oil and its derivatives.

The deepening of economic relations between Brazil and Africa in the 21st century was mainly due to the following reasons: (1) the economic boom in the world and in Brazil and (2) political choices that defined relations with Africa as a priority, and it is not entirely correct to say that BRICS has strengthened these. One of the possible problems with relations with Africa is that after institutional collapse or a change of governments in Brazil, its foreign policy changes radically. For example, in the Timer government, he was explicitly in favor of more cooperation with Western countries and less with Southern countries, although Brazilian civil society (including universities, but also entrepreneurs) emphasized how important it was to strengthen economic relations with BRICS countries (Monyae & Ndzendze, 2021.pp:65-73). This view changed rapidly in the new era of the Lula government, and the African continent regained importance.

In Relations and Competition with China

Modern Chinese relations with Brazil began in 1974 with military ties, and in the 1990s they became strategic partners, and now the Chinese know and demand much more from Brazil. Bilateral relations are also linked to other components such as the European Union, the United States, and human rights discussions(Santoro, 2022, p: 5).

In 2012, Beijing upgraded its relations with Brasilia to a comprehensive strategic partnership, the highest classification that China grants to its diplomatic partners. In 2021, bilateral trade reached a record $135 billion. Between 2007 and 2020, Brazil received more than $66 billion in Chinese investment (Esteves Gabrielsen & Benjamin 2020.pp:85-86). China relations will continue as long as Lula is in power, but some Americans believe that it will turn Brazil into one of China's satellites in the bloc classification and will intensify the conflict with the United States.

Brazil’s trade with China reached a record $150 billion in 2023, and the yuan became the country’s second reserve currency. A Brazilian bank (controlled by a Chinese parent company) became the first financial institution in Latin America to join China’s cross-border interbank payment system, which settles trade in the Chinese currency. Both leaders have also successfully positioned themselves as champions of the global South, expressing their desire to disrupt the “global geopolitical balance,” supporting their countries as mediators in Ukraine, and presenting the BRICS mechanism as a counterweight to the US-dominated international system (Delaware, 1402: 1-4).

In BRICS, large Chinese companies are pursuing an aggressive strategy, expanding their international investments in various countries, including Brazil, as the country is an important destination for trade networks. At the same time, the Brazilian economy has not been successful in entering new international markets, especially China. Brazilian manufactured goods are unable to compete with Chinese-made ones. A gradual but noticeable shift in the profile of Chinese exports to Brazil is taking place towards an increasingly complex range of goods, including aircraft, electronic equipment, biotechnology and nanotechnology products. During the preparatory meetings for the 2014 bilateral summit, Brazil pressured Chinese representatives to further open their markets to some of Brazil’s primary products, such as beef, sugar and corn. The Chinese agreed to significantly reduce tariffs on Brazilian soybean oil, lift the suspension and embargo on Brazilian beef, and implement partnerships between Brazilian and Chinese companies. In addition, Brazil has expressed interest in implementing joint operations to create “smart electricity distribution networks” and develop wind and solar energy technologies (Pardeep Singh &, 2022.pp:215-220). China’s entry into the world market and Brazil’s role in the BRICS to find its place in a multipolar world have led to the United States having less relations with it. China's role, identity, and acting in its triangle with Brazil and the United States can be explained.

The factors influencing geopolitical thinking in Latin America show that: Latin America is now less marginal in international politics and has more maneuvering power in the field; - Geopolitical thinking has changed from a national unit to a regional or continental level and has taken the form of a coalition; - Part of the development of South America has been structured on the basis of a new geopolitical region, with Brazil as the main power; - The United States has lost its centrality in Latin America, and trans hemispheric actors such as China have a major role; - As a result of the shift in global power and new international situations, the Pacific and the South Atlantic have become important for Latin America; - Natural resources have once again become an important issue in US policy, leading to increased security and new energy relations, especially related to maritime borders; - Brazil's role with special capacities, including an active role in cooperation with the global security architecture.

Governments and BRICS
The discourse of governments in Brazil shows that the country's interests are defined in global equations or in BRICS according to the opinion of the president at the time. First, Cardoso showed a tendency to be multilateral in foreign policy, Lula da Silva fully supported BRICS. Then, its widest and most intense interests continued during the Dilma Rousseff government from 2011 to 2016. This continuity, as well as subsequent differences, can be called "constraints in continuity".

Under Lula's government, Brazil took a greater political position, especially on the issue of the JCPOA, to gain prestige. Under Dilma's government, the dominant view was that the JCPOA and security crises should not be given much importance, because such issues would cause disagreement and conflict that would be contrary to Brazil's national interests. Throughout the Workers’ Party governments, Brazilian officials have worked more closely with BRICS to establish standards for participation and increase productivity, progress, and technological integration (Monyae & Ndzendze, 2021, pp: 87-88). The policy of the Jair Bolsonaro government has been in complete alignment with the United States. As a result, the 2019 BRICS summit under Brazil’s presidency was the most ineffective summit in its history. At home, Lula appears to be challenged by a disloyal military, a relatively oppositional Congress, parties inclined to Bolsonaro’s legacy, and an inability to address poverty given the unstable global economy and high prices for goods and food, and in foreign policy, a divided and economically incompetent southern region, and the war in Ukraine, which has had a significant impact on relations with Russia, challenges that were less evident during his first and second terms.

There are some concerns for Brazil regarding BRICS, which have been raised mostly by Westerners. The first concern concerns the heterogeneity within BRICS and the issue of China; Thus, in a horizontal relationship between all countries, the risk of asymmetry in relations with China is real. Unlike Western multilateral institutions, BRICS has so far managed to respect the principle of equality for its institutions (e.g. the Development Bank) and in its governance structure. However, it is undeniable that the group’s actual policy may be unbalanced in China’s favor (Rajan Kumar & others, 2023.p:161). A second external concern for Brazil concerns the heterogeneity between the economic structures of the five countries. These countries have complementary productive structures that potentially allow for a very large volume of relations. Brazil’s exports to Russia, India and China consist almost exclusively of agricultural and mineral goods, while its imports consist of higher value-added goods (especially manufactured goods). Some unconfirmed reports have suggested that the Americans played a role in Bolsonaro’s rise to power, to prevent Brazil from leaning towards China through lobbying and large investments in pro-US and anti-China think tanks (Rajan Kumar & others, 2023.p:162).

Brazil’s latest administrative move in BRICS compliance was the creation of a special secretariat for investment partnerships, which centralized the internal administrative structure around the secretariat and gave the Ministry of Economy the mission of streamlining the management of the secretariat’s projects in a wide range of priority infrastructure sectors in order to prioritize private investment (Brazil, 2023.p:28).

Conclusion

Within BRICS, two opposing approaches can be observed, resulting from the different policies of the members towards dependence on great powers and at the same time the desire for interdependence in the economic sphere. Accordingly, BRICS currently lacks the authority or guarantees necessary to advance its goals for various reasons, including dependence on great powers and controversial political issues, and its decisions depend on the level of cooperation or governance of the parties. For example, the issue of Gaza in Palestine and the Israeli attack on Lebanon and Saudi Arabia’s unwillingness to participate in the BRICS summit in Russia in late 2024 and Brazil’s support for the Palestinian people against Netanyahu’s military actions in the massacre of the Palestinian people are examples of this type of divergence. At the same time, all members have declared the necessary desire to advance their goals in the medium and long term in the field of economy and mutual trade and exchange with their own countries’ domestic currencies, and they have the necessary economic motivation, which can also be used to assess the bond between BRICS members from the interdependence approach.

The BRICS organization and structure are a combination of small and large powers, which initially aimed to weaken the hegemony of the United States, but now economic benefits and gains have become much more important. It seems that there is a consensus among the members in the field of removing the dollar from the world trade arena, and the BRICS organization is structuring in this regard. But these measures are in the first stage. The neoliberal structure or dollar hegemony still exists in global exchanges and many BRICS members are dependent on the dollar in trade matters. The Islamic Republic, Brazil and Russia are currently fueling these types of divergent anti-dollar hegemony attitudes in the BRICS member countries. But it seems that over time, the consolidation of economic relations based on interdependence will increase. Elements such as cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence will also accelerate the rupture in financial matters of the current liberal order.

What is certain is that Brazil is now determined to advance and cooperate constructively with the BRICS organization based on the logic of interdependence while respecting democracy. Brazil's opposition to accepting Venezuela's membership in BRICS - despite the leftist Maduro government - due to the country's failure to observe transparent presidential elections in 2024, shows that Brazil is afraid of the suspicion of defeating the logic of free and fair elections based on democratic rules in the Latin American continent. From this perspective, the necessary data in Brazilian governments show that leftists usually interact more extensively with other countries in the global arena and present a peaceful foreign policy based on the logic of interdependence. This is the opposite in right-wing governments, which usually cooperate more with the United States. The leftist Workers' Party of Brazil, which was founded in 1980, has played an active and strategic role in BRICS since the begiing of 2000. The Brazilian government's interest in resisting the hegemony of the dollar and developing a multilateral structure is clearly stated in government decision-making. However, the Bolsonaro government and his person have subsequently been presented as a right-wing and authoritarian leader who is eroding democracy, extremist, polarizing, militarizing, and anti-liberal. These political turns usually weaken Brazil's role in BRICS, because forces affiliated with the military with right-wing characteristics may once again take control of the power structure.

However, the conclusion about Brazil's global role and role in BRICS indicates that:

As a non-permanent member of the Security Council, Brazil has always pursued three tasks: respecting political and civil rights when international crises arise. - Acting in peacekeeping operations. - Close and constant contact with the Security Council and the Human Rights Group. Brazil has always demanded a permanent seat on the Security Council, and although the United States has not opposed it, it has never supported it either. During the first term of Dilma Rousseff's presidency, Brazilian foreign policy had the following characteristics: Active participation in peacekeeping operations. - The importance attached to important bilateral cooperation agreements. These peaceful policies are all based on the theory of interdependence.

Brazil-US relations can be characterized by a “tolerance approach”, an approach in which both sides avoid open confrontation, but nevertheless, its result is the neutralization of the actions of both sides. On this basis, Brazil’s active presence in BRICS can also be considered part of an effort to exit unilateral relations with the US and an attempt to break the system based on US hegemony.

Given the structural nature of Lula da Silva’s thinking on cooperation with the South and the emphasis on BRICS, it seems that this policy will continue with force as long as he is in office. However, if a government aligned with the US such as Bolsonaro comes to power, there may not be a serious change in the direction of BRICS or an exit, but it will probably face indifference and a reduction in importance for BRICS. Hence, another important variable in policymaking in Brazil is the elections.

BRICS faces many challenges, but Brazil seems prepared to face them, although Russia is now in a state of instability after the war in Ukraine and does not have the necessary capacity to exert influence in terms of sanctions. But collectively, these developments may make the views of BRICS members more aggressive, especially on the dollar issue. Given the current importance of the dollar, it seems that the general trends are moving towards a desire to distort or weaken it, a kind of strong nationalist feeling against the dollar is forming in countries. Given the global and cross-border nature of digital currencies, it seems that they will have a greater impact on weakening the dollar than the yuan or the ruble.

Brazil-US relations can be characterized by the “tolerance approach”, an approach in which both sides avoid open confrontation, but nevertheless the result is mutual neutralization. Miscalculations created a cycle of false expectations in the second half of the 20th century. Although the decline in the importance of bilateral relations for Brazilian foreign policy has been reduced in recent years due to miscalculations, the pattern of repetition and reciprocity has not stopped. On this basis, Brazil’s active presence in BRICS can also be seen as part of an effort to exit unilateral relations with the United States and an attempt to break the system based on US hegemony.

Given the structural nature of Lula da Silva’s thinking on cooperation with the South and the emphasis on BRICS, it seems that this policy will continue with force as long as he is in office. However, another variable is the election, and if a government aligned with the United States such as Bolsonaro comes to power, there may not be a serious change in the direction of BRICS or an exit, but it will probably face indifference and a reduction in BRICS. BRICS has several challenges ahead, but Brazil seems prepared to face them, although Russia is now in a state of instability after the Ukraine war and does not have the necessary capacity to exert influence in terms of sanctions. But overall, these developments may make the views of the BRICS members more aggressive, especially on the dollar issue. Given the current importance of the dollar, it seems that the general trends are towards the desire to distort or weaken the dollar, a kind of strong nationalist feeling against the dollar is forming in the countries. It seems that digital currencies, given their global and cross-border nature, will have a greater impact on weakening the dollar than the yuan or the ruble.

In the region, Lula has been vigorously pursuing the strategy of strengthening Mercosur, regional integration pacts and South-South cooperation from the begiing. In general, it can be concluded that there has always been a definite conflict between Brazil as a representative of the Mercosur model and the United States as a representative of NAFTA. Lula has spoken of the revival of Unasur, Mercosur and CELAC. The final assessment is that although part of the region is dominated by the United States, it is not fully managed, dependence on the United States is limited and declining due to the spread of leftist governments, and the management of regional affairs is more ad hoc and variable diplomacy, subject to developments. However, the future atmosphere in this area is still not certain.

Lula has moved towards developing relations in Africa and Asia and is overtaking the Americans in trade according to the data, while the United States will remain Brazil's strategic trading partner. Brazil will also have antitrust disputes with the Americans in all areas. Therefore, BRICS is a small part of a larger puzzle of acting for Brazil, which is trying to achieve the necessary benefits in other areas through economic interdependence in the shadow of peace and cooperation. Brazil is trying to link all economic areas in a reciprocal and interactive maer.

Overall, by evaluating Brazil's military and economic data, it can be considered a country that is gradually progressing and is currently among the middle and major powers. The reason is its fragility at home in terms of a complex bureaucracy with the variable of elections and the change of government that also changes its policies towards global issues. For example, these changes can be related to strengthening or weakening its presence in BRICS. This fragility at home means that, compared to the centralized political structure of Russia and China, we caot expect stability in BRICS in strategic decision-making. Stability or instability in the BRICS sphere of action is directly related to the regional and continental situation and to interactions with China, Russia and other actors.

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[1] -Many researchers have worked on this issue, but Fareed Zakaria opened the issue very much in his book "The World After America" ​​in 2009, and some researchers dissected the issue in their book "The World Ahead, Debating the World After America" ​​in 2011, and generally put forward two opinions: Brazil has launched a broad rhetoric and lacks the power to globalize and even lacks the ability to lead in South America. Some also consider it an effective world power in the issue of peacebuilding, conflict management, including the Iranian nuclear crisis and recently the issue of Ukraine, which, together with China and Russia, is strongly pursuing the reduction of the hegemony of the United States and the weakening of the dollar in the world.

[2] - It is necessary to clarify that in the original source below, it is mentioned until 2018, the author of the article added 2018 to 2024.

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